IGCSE Economics 0455: Rural-Urban Migration and Economic Development

Over the past decade, a prolonged drought has sharply reduced farm incomes in Voleth, a rural farming region of the country of Tarkassa. Over the same period, factories and service businesses in Tarkassa's capital city, Bremshaw, have expanded and now offer wages well above what most workers can earn from farming in Voleth. As a result, tens of thousands of young working-age adults have left Voleth for Bremshaw in search of better-paid work, while older residents have mostly stayed behind in Voleth.

(a) Identify one "push" factor and one "pull" factor, from the information above, that explain this migration from Voleth to Bremshaw. [2]

(b) Explain two likely effects of this migration on the population structure remaining in Voleth. [4]

Part (a): Push and pull factors

Push factor: the prolonged drought in Voleth, which sharply reduced farm incomes and gave residents a reason to leave the region.
Pull factor: the higher wages offered by factories and service businesses in Bremshaw, which attracted workers away from farming in Voleth.

Part (b): Effects on Voleth’s population structure

A smaller population: with tens of thousands of people leaving for Bremshaw, Voleth’s total population is likely to shrink.
An older, more dependent population left behind: because it is mainly young working-age adults who have migrated, the people remaining in Voleth are increasingly older residents and children. This raises Voleth’s dependency ratio, since a smaller working-age population is left to support a relatively larger share of dependants (older people and children) in the region.

Part (c): Effects on economic development in Bremshaw

Potential benefits:

A larger available workforce of young working-age migrants can help Bremshaw’s factories and service businesses expand output, potentially raising the city’s total income and generating more tax revenue for public spending.
New workers can also fill labour shortages and support a wider range of economic activity in the city.

Potential costs:

A rapidly growing urban population increases demand for housing, transport, healthcare and education in Bremshaw. If the supply of housing and infrastructure does not expand quickly enough, this can lead to overcrowding, rising housing costs, and strain on public services.
If Bremshaw’s businesses cannot create enough jobs for all the new arrivals, some migrants may struggle to find work, which could offset some of the intended economic gains from migration.

Overall judgement: rural-urban migration is likely to boost Bremshaw’s workforce and output, but whether this translates into genuinely improved economic development depends on whether the city’s housing, infrastructure and job creation can keep pace with its rapidly growing population.

Final answers

(a) Push factor: the drought reducing farm incomes in Voleth. Pull factor: higher wages available in Bremshaw.
(b) Voleth’s population falls, and the remaining population becomes older, raising its dependency ratio.
(c) Bremshaw likely gains a larger workforce and higher output, but faces pressure on housing, infrastructure and services. The net effect on development depends on whether jobs and services keep pace with population growth.