Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates: Question 10
Syllabus 6.5
Bregantia has a persistent current account deficit. Rather than relying on a depreciation of its currency, Bregantia's government is considering imposing tariffs on imported manufactured goods as a way of correcting the deficit.
(a) Explain how imposing tariffs on imported manufactured goods could help to correct Bregantia's current account deficit. [3]
(b) Explain one way in which using tariffs to make imports less attractive differs from relying on a depreciation of Bregantia's currency to do so. [2]
(c) Discuss the extent to which using tariffs is likely to be an effective way of correcting Bregantia's current account deficit. [4]
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Worked solution
Part (a): How tariffs could help correct the deficit
A tariff is a tax on imported goods. Imposing one on imported manufactured goods raises their price for Bregantian buyers above the price charged by the foreign seller. If Bregantian consumers and firms respond to this higher price by buying fewer of the now relatively more expensive imports, perhaps switching towards domestically produced alternatives instead, total spending on imports falls. Since a fall in import spending, with exports unchanged, narrows the gap between money flowing out and money flowing in, this would help correct Bregantia’s current account deficit.
Part (b): How tariffs differ from a depreciation
A depreciation is a market-determined, economy-wide change: the exchange rate falls, making every export cheaper abroad and every import more expensive at home, all at once, without the government setting its size directly. A tariff, by contrast, is a policy tool chosen and controlled by the government: ministers decide the rate of tax and which goods it applies to, so it can be targeted narrowly (here, at imported manufactured goods specifically) rather than changing the price of everything Bregantia trades, including its own exports.
Part (c): How effective are tariffs likely to be?
Tariffs can, in principle, help by discouraging spending on the targeted imports, as explained in part (a). However, there are strong reasons to doubt how effective they will be on their own.
First, trading partners may retaliate with tariffs of their own on Bregantia’s exports. If this happens, Bregantia’s export revenue could fall just as its import spending is falling, offsetting some or all of the intended improvement in the deficit, and risking an escalating trade war.
Second, tariffs may breach international trade agreements or World Trade Organization commitments Bregantia has signed up to, exposing it to formal disputes or sanctioned retaliation, which a depreciation (a market outcome rather than a deliberate trade barrier) does not carry in the same way.
Third, if Bregantia’s own manufacturers rely on imported components or raw materials that fall within the scope of the tariff, or that become dearer as a knock-on effect, their production costs rise. This could make Bregantia’s own exports less price-competitive elsewhere, working against the policy’s goal.
Finally, tariffs do nothing to address any underlying structural causes of the deficit, such as weak productivity or a lack of investment in export industries. If those causes remain, the improvement from tariffs alone is likely to be partial and possibly temporary, so tariffs are more likely to succeed as one part of a wider policy package than as a sufficient solution by themselves.
Final answers
- (a) A tariff raises the domestic price of the targeted imports, and if buyers switch away from them, import spending falls, narrowing the deficit
- (b) A depreciation is a market-determined, economy-wide price change; a tariff is a government-chosen tax that can be targeted at specific imported goods
- (c) Tariffs can help but are unlikely to be fully effective alone, given the risks of retaliation, breaches of trade agreements, higher costs for import-reliant domestic firms, and the fact that tariffs do not address structural causes of the deficit