Macroeconomic Policy Conflicts and the Phillips Curve: Question 7
Syllabus 10.1, 10.3
Palmira's currency, the corona, is currently valued at 1 corona = $0.50 on the foreign exchange market. Palmira's central bank pursues a policy of managed depreciation, allowing market forces to push the exchange rate down to 1 corona = $0.40, in order to make Palmira's exports more price-competitive abroad.
(a) Calculate the percentage change in the dollar value of the corona. [2]
(b) Explain how this depreciation could help Palmira achieve a faster rate of economic growth and improve its current account of the balance of payments. [3]
(c) Explain how this same depreciation could conflict with Palmira's objective of low and stable inflation. [3]
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Worked solution
Part (a): The percentage change in the dollar value of the corona
Using the original dollar value of $0.50 as the base:
The dollar value of the corona falls by 20%. This is a depreciation of the corona.
Part (b): How the depreciation could raise growth and improve the current account
A weaker corona means that, for a given corona price, Palmira’s exports are now cheaper when converted into foreign currency, while imports become more expensive in corona terms for Palmira’s own residents and firms. If the combined price responsiveness of exports and imports is large enough (the Marshall-Lerner condition), foreign buyers purchase more of Palmira’s exports and domestic buyers switch some spending away from imports towards domestically produced goods. Export revenue rises relative to import spending, so net exports () increase. This directly adds to aggregate demand, raising Palmira’s real output and growth, and, because export earnings rise relative to import spending, it also improves the current account balance.
Part (c): How the same depreciation conflicts with low inflation
The same price change that helps exports also raises the corona cost of anything Palmira imports. Firms that rely on imported raw materials, components or machinery now face higher production costs, some of which they pass on as higher prices. Imported consumer goods, such as electronics or fuel, also become more expensive directly for Palmira’s households. This is cost-push inflation, driven by higher import costs rather than by excess demand, and it works directly against Palmira’s objective of low and stable inflation, illustrating a genuine conflict created by the same exchange rate policy that helps growth and the current account.
Final answers
- (a) The corona’s dollar value falls by 20%
- (b) Cheaper exports and dearer imports raise net exports, boosting growth and improving the current account, if export and import volumes are price-responsive enough
- (c) Dearer imported inputs and consumer goods create cost-push inflation, conflicting with the low-inflation objective